Anticipated Q4 2024 Sales Boost for Tesla, Despite Slight Annual Sales Drop Forecasted
Tesla's Q4 2024 deliveries set a new record for the brand with around 495,600 units, marking a 7.1% decline from Q3 2024 deliveries[2]. This was part of an overall slowdown in demand during 2024, caused by factors such as cheaper EV competition, the disappearance of U.S. tax credits, factory delays, and higher interest rates[1].
Despite the record-breaking quarter, Tesla’s full-year 2024 sales totaled approximately 1.79 million units, a decline compared to prior growth trends[1]. This performance indicates that Tesla is falling short of the aggressive growth trajectory required to meet its ambitious goal of 20 million vehicles by 2030[1][2].
To reach the 20 million units by 2030, Tesla would need to dramatically scale up production and market share over the next five years from under 2 million annual sales currently[1][2]. Current market pressures and increasing competition suggest significant obstacles remain.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, analysts expected Tesla to announce record sales of electric vehicles. However, the company may have missed its target of slight growth compared to 2023 for the full year[3]. For the entire year 2024, Tesla is expected to sell between 507,000 and 512,000 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter[4].
Elon Musk's estimate for 2025 includes some risk, suggesting a potential increase in Tesla's electric vehicle sales compared to 2024[5]. However, the estimate for 2025 does not indicate a return to the growth rate seen between 2022 and 2023, nor does it suggest that Tesla will achieve the same number of deliveries as in 2023, which would require 514,925 vehicles in Q4 2024[6].
The sales forecast for 2025 is higher than the current estimates for Tesla's Q4 2024 sales[7]. In the Q3 conference in October 2024, Elon Musk gave a "rough estimate" for a 20-30% increase in electric vehicle sales for 2025[8]. However, it is uncertain whether Tesla will be able to maintain this growth rate given the challenges faced in 2024.
The forecast for 2025 does not suggest that Tesla will exceed the sales of Q4 2023, which were 1,808,581 units[9]. It remains to be seen whether Tesla will be able to regain its momentum and meet the expectations set for 2025.
References:
- Bloomberg
- Reuters
- CNBC
- Teslarati
- The Verge
- Electrek
- MarketWatch
- Tesla Q3 Earnings Call Transcript
- Tesla Q4 2023 Earnings Report
