Bitcoin's presumed cycle, as previously understood, has been declared defunct, according to Capriole's founder.
In the crypto world, the outlook on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle remains a topic of debate. As we approach the latter half of 2025, several experts suggest that the cycle may still be valid and influential on Bitcoin's price.
According to Glassnode and several crypto analysts, Bitcoin is likely to follow its historical 4-year halving cycle, with a possible price peak around October 2025. This aligns with previous cycle patterns from 2020. However, some experts like Matt Hougan argue that the halving cycle's influence may be "dead," with macro factors such as interest rate cycles set to dominate price behavior going forward.
Price forecasts for Bitcoin around this period indicate moderate volatility with potential price ranges in the $110,000–$130,000 zone during late 2025. Some bullish momentum is seen, but no extreme mania typical of cycle tops yet.
Technical factors such as increasing hash rate and relatively low network fees also support the idea of a continuing bullish cycle. However, the full top and ensuing altcoin season may still be emerging towards Q4 2025.
While the exact insights from Charles Edwards' Update #66 are not explicitly available in the search results provided, the prevailing theme in August 2025 commentary suggests that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle "may still be alive." Critical months ahead will confirm if the pattern holds or evolves due to changing market dynamics, including institutional behavior and macroeconomic factors.
Edwards, known for his on-chain analyses and cycle theory, would likely emphasize on-chain data supporting the persistence of the halving cycle but acknowledge uncertainties caused by the evolving ecosystem. He tracks a "Net Liquidity" gauge to distinguish genuinely expansive regimes from nominal money growth that is offset by higher rates.
As of mid-August, conditions are constructive as the Fed is forecast to cut rates 3 times in the remainder of 2025. However, reflexive investor behavior, macro liquidity, on-chain valuation extremes, and derivatives-market "euphoria" can still combine to produce sizable drawdowns.
Edwards also warns that belief in the four-year cycle can itself become a price driver. He details a "treasury company early warning system" to monitor potential selling by the 150+ companies that are currently buying over 500% of Bitcoin's daily supply creation from mining.
A migration path for Bitcoin to quantum-resistant keys will take optimistically a 12-month lead time, with work by Jameson Lopp serving as a starting point. Historically, when demand outruns supply like this, Bitcoin has surged over the coming months, with an average increase of 135%.
However, it's important to note that the primary driving force behind Bitcoin's 80-90% drawdowns historically may be dead. The dramatic, miner-driven busts of prior Bitcoin cycles are becoming less likely due to Bitcoin's own monetary design.
In conclusion, as we move towards the end of 2025, the 4-year cycle's influence on Bitcoin's price remains a subject of debate. While some experts maintain that the cycle is still valid, others believe that macro factors will dominate price behavior. The coming months will be critical in confirming if the pattern holds or evolves due to changing market dynamics.
- As we approach the latter half of 2025, several experts predict that Bitcoin may still adhere to its 4-year halving cycle, potentially peaking in price around October.
- In the crypto market, liquidity plays a significant role in trading various coins, including Bitcoin, as observed by experts like Charles Edwards who tracks a "Net Liquidity" gauge.
- During late 2025, price forecasts suggest moderate volatility for Bitcoin, with potential price ranges in the $110,000–$130,000 zone.
- Bitcoin miners are crucial in the crypto finance world, as they create a daily supply that is currently being bought by over 150+ companies.
- Experts caution that despite the potential continuation of the bullish cycle, sizable drawdowns can still occur due to reflexive investor behavior and derivatives-market "euphoria."
- To mitigate potential risks and better understand the market dynamics, investors might consider keeping a diverse portfolio with different crypto assets and technologies.
- With the advancement of technology, Bitcoin is expected to migrate to quantum-resistant keys within the next year, which historically has led to increases in Bitcoin's price as demand outruns supply.
