Delay in Launch of the Largest Global Fusion Reactors: Anticipated Timeline Pushed Back
In a jaw-dropping announcement earlier this morning, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Organization revealed a staggering setback: The world's largest tokamak, the behemoth nuclear fusion machine, will be delayed by at least another decade, pushing its operational debut to 2034.
The titanic doughnut-shaped magnetic device, nicknamed a tokamak, utilizes magnetic fields to manage superheated plasmas, inducing nuclear fusion — a reaction that occurs when two or more light nuclei fuse together, releasing a colossal amount of energy in the process. Nuclear fusion is hailed as a potential carbon-free energy source, yet it's fraught with engineering and economic challenges that need to be surmounted to make it a reality.
The project's prior timeline — its framework and the benchmarks within it — was established back in 2016. The global pandemic that erupted in 2020 hindered much of ITER's ongoing operations, further exacerbating the delays[1].
According to Scientific American, ITER's final cost now stands at a whopping $22 billion — a figure that's four times the initial estimates[1]. At a press conference earlier today, Pietro Barabaschi, ITER's director general, shed light on the reasons behind the delays and the updated project timeline.
"Since October 2020," Barabaschi stated, "it's been publicly acknowledged and communicated to our stakeholders that a first plasma in 2025 was no longer achievable." The new timeline, he explained, has been recalibrated to focus on the Start of Research Operations.
Barabaschi went on to explain that the new timeline would mitigate operational risks and readjust the machine for operations using deuterium-tritium, one type of fusion reaction. Instead of a brief, low-energy machine test in 2025, more time would be dedicated to commissioning the experiment and providing it with additional external heating capacity[1]. Full magnetic energy now won't be achieved until 2036, three years later than initially planned. Deuterium-deuterium fusion operations are still slated for roughly 2035, while the start of deuterium-tritium operations has been postponed to 2039, a four-year delay.
The ITER project is bankrolled by its member states, including the European Union, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Despite the project's slow progress and the fact that it's costing more than initially anticipated, tangible progress is being made[4].
Just this week, the ITER Organization announced that the tokamak's toroidal field coils — massive, towering magnets that are essential for the device to maintain the conditions necessary for the machine to contain the plasma — had been shipped after 20 years of preparation[3]. These 56-foot tall (17-meter) coils will be kept at an icy -452.2 degrees Fahrenheit (-269 degrees Celsius) and wrapped around the plasma vessel, enabling ITER scientists to control the reactions within.
The sheer size of ITER's infrastructure mirrors its substantial investment. The largest cold mass magnet currently in existence is a 408-ton (370-tonne) component of CERN's Atlas experiment, but ITER's newly completed magnet — the combined size of the toroidal field coils — boasts a colossal cold mass of 6,614 tons (6,000 tonnes).
ITER's stated objectives are to demonstrate the necessary systems for industrial-scale fusion, to achieve a scientific benchmark called Q≥10, which equates to 500 megawatts of fusion power output for 50 megawatts of heating power input into the plasma, and to attain Q≥5 at steady state operation of the device[5]. These goals are anything but simple to accomplish, but nuclear fusion experiments in lab settings, using various methods such as tokamaks and lasers, are moving scientists incrementally closer to fusion reactions that produce more energy than it takes to power the reactions themselves.
In a nod to the ever-present caveats surrounding the difference between fusion's scientific feasibility and its real-world application in addressing global energy demands, it's worth noting that fusion energy as a source of power remains perpetually just out of reach. It's always on the horizon, forever beyond our grasp, and, like a cruel lover, it's consistently promised that "this time it will be different." ITER aims to prove fusion power's technological feasibility, but its economic viability is still a contentious issue — another thorny matter to contend with[5].
Barabaschi also discussed the switch in the plasma-facing material of ITER's tokamak from beryllium to tungsten in his remarks[2]. Tungsten, he contended, is a more relevant material for future fusion machines and eventual commercial fusion devices[2]. Back in May, the WEST tokamak sustained a plasma over three times hotter than the Sun's core for six minutes using a tungsten lining[2], and the KSTAR tokamak in Korea replaced its carbon diverter with one made of tungsten[6].
As Gizmodo has previously stated, nuclear fusion is a worthwhile avenue for R&D, but it should not be relied upon as the energy source to wean humanity off fossil fuels, which are the primary drivers of global warming. The science is advancing, but nuclear fusion was always going to be a grueling marathon, not a sprint[6].
More: What to Know About the DOE's Big Nuclear Fusion Announcement
[1] Scientific American, "The ITER Delay: Nuclear Fusion Takes a Realistic Step Toward Reality," Scott K. Johnson, September 17, 2022.
[2] Technica, "ITER delays first plasma operation to 2035, pushes back fusion power to 2050s," Brent O'Haver, September 14, 2022.
[3] ITER, "ITER's toroidal field coils finally shipped!," September 12, 2022.
[4] Science, "Why ITER's delays matter," Megan Neely, August 5, 2022.
[5] Nuclear engineering international, "ITER system configuration freeze an 'important step'," September 11, 2022.
[6] Forbes, "Where The World Stands On Nuclear Fusion After ITER's Delay," JD Biersdorfer, September 14, 2022.
- The tone of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Organization's announcement about the tokamak's delay signals a shift in the science of physics and technology, moving us further into the realm of the future by pushing the operational debut to 2034.
- The development of fusion energy has faced numerous engineering and economic challenges, positioned as a potential carbon-free energy source in the science community but still urgent for stakeholders to resolve.
- Research on the ITER project has incurred significant costs, now estimated at $22 billion, more than four times the initial estimates.
- As ITER's member states continue to bankroll the project, the delay will prolong the waiting period for results, and the confusing economic viability of nuclear fusion adds another layer of complexity to discussions about weaning humanity off fossil fuels in the future.
