Earth's orbital capacity for satellites and the required number, as well as the current count and necessity.
Soaring Satellite Count: What Happens When Our Skies Become Congested?
In the past five years, the number of satellites orbiting Earth has doubled, and projections suggest this trend could continue for the foreseeable future, driven mainly by the efforts of private companies such as SpaceX. However, as the number of satellites increases, scientists are growing increasingly concerned about the potential negative consequences.
As of May 2025, approximately 11,700 active satellites circle our planet, ranging from military intelligence satellites to scientific probes, and rapidly growing private satellite networks. This rise in the satellite population is on an upward trajectory, with launch rates increasing year by year.
Leading the charge is SpaceX's Starlink constellation, accounting for over 60% of all current operational orbiting satellites, having launched since May 2019. Other organizations are also developing their "megaconstellations," such as Amazon's Project Kuiper and China's Thousand Sails constellation. The reusability of rockets, a key factor in propelling satellite networks like SpaceX's Falcon 9, has made it easier for companies to send more satellites into space. In addition, novel methods of launching larger payloads, including launching hundreds of satellites at once using a giant spinning cannon, are under exploration by some companies.
With the industry gearing up for an unprecedented increase in satellites, researchers like Fionagh Thomson, a senior research fellow at the University of Durham in the U.K., who specializes in space ethics, have expressed concerns about the potential impact on our planet. "Megaconstellations are planning to cover most of the Earth's surface," Thomson notes, but uncertainty remains over their ultimate size and potential harm.
To estimate the future number of satellites, experts like Aaron Boley, an astronomer at The University of British Columbia, Canada, track satellites' evolution and growth patterns. Boley explains that while satellite companies often change their plans, the proposed number of satellites belonging to around 300 megaconstellations currently totals more than 1 million, according to a 2023 study co-authored by Boley. However, not all of these proposed megaconstellations will come to fruition, as certain projects, such as a 337,000-satellite megaconstellation from Rwanda, may not materialize.
While it's hard to predict the exact number of satellites that will be launched, researchers believe that the carrying capacity for low-Earth orbit (LEO)—the region up to 1,200 miles above Earth's surface—is around 100,000 active satellites. Beyond this number, satellites would likely experience constant collisions as they jostle for space. Some experts predict that this carrying capacity could be reached before 2050 if the current rate of increasing launches continues.
As satellite numbers continue to grow, researchers are working to identify and address potential issues. One potential concern is the generation of space junk, including rocket boosters, defunct satellites, and debris produced by collisions, which could create dangerous debris fields and render LEO effectively unusable. Other complications include interference with ground-based astronomy caused by sunlight reflecting off satellites and electromagnetic radiation leaking from communications satellites, which can obscure signals from distant objects such as faraway galaxies.
To mitigate these risks, experts are advocating for reduced satellite launch rates and the implementation of better international regulations. "Slowing things down and delaying the placement of 100,000 satellites until we have better international rules would be prudent," Boley suggests.
Critics question whether the benefits of these proposed satellite numbers outweigh the potential risks, with some arguing that companies are prioritizing profit over scientific integrity and societal need. Others argue that instead of focusing on deploying additional satellites, companies and governments should collaborate to efficiently deliver valuable services with fewer satellites.
As our skies become increasingly crowded with satellites, navigating the balance between innovation, technological advancement, and responsible space governance will be essential for the future of our planet.
Science and environmental science are expressing growing concerns about the potential negative consequences of the increasing number of satellites that circle our planet. With the rise of satellite megaconstellations like SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon's Project Kuiper, and China's Thousand Sails, there is a need for technology solutions to mitigate risks, such as space junk and interference with ground-based astronomy.
