Looming Lithium Scarcity for E-Cars: Sodium-ion Batteries Hitting the Mainstream?
Electric car lithium supplies may face shortages by 2030.
The surge in electric vehicle (EV) demand could lead to a global lithium deficit as early as 2030. Despite efforts to boost lithium production, the supply won't keep up with the growing demand, according to a study from East China Normal University in Shanghai and Lund University in Sweden.
The study predicts that Europe will face the most significant bottleneck. Although EU lithium production is anticipated to increase significantly to 325,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year by 2030, it will barely cover a fraction of the projected demand of 792,000 tons.
"Lithium is as crucial today as gasoline was during the industrial revolution," says Qifan Xia, co-author of the study from East China Normal University. "Lithium reserves are substantial worldwide, but unevenly distributed among different countries, making meeting the growing demand a daunting task."
Europe's Dependence on Imports
Lithium, primarily used in lithium-ion batteries that power smartphones, laptops, and electric cars, has Europe almost completely reliant on imports. Main suppliers include Chile, Australia, and China, where the raw material is extracted primarily through mining or from large salt lakes.
However, more domestic lithium extraction projects are underway in Germany, such as lithium extraction from deep water in the Upper Rhine Graben and Lüneburg Heath, and plans to mine directly from rock in the Saxon Ore Mountains.
The Global Lithium Dilemma
Both the USA and China will be unable to meet their own demand, according to the study. The shortfall will be significantly smaller in the USA, with production reaching up to 610,000 tons by 2030, covering about 90% of the expected demand. China, currently one of the world's leading lithium suppliers, could boost production to up to 1.1 million tons. Yet, this output falls short of the projected demand of 1.3 million tons.
Consequently, none of the three regions will be self-sufficient, and they will all compete for imports, potentially aggravating supply bottlenecks and straining global trade relations.
Sodium-ion Batteries as a Potential Solution
To counter the approaching shortage, the study suggests not only increasing lithium production but also reducing lithium usage. New battery technologies, like sodium-ion batteries, might offer a solution.
Chinese EV battery manufacturer CATL has already initiated mass production of sodium-ion cells and plans to supply them to automakers by the end of 2025. Although sodium-ion batteries have a lower energy density than lithium-ion ones, they are suited for smaller cars with a short range.
However, further research and development are necessary before sodium-ion batteries can replace lithium-ion batteries in mass markets. Improvements in energy density and durability, as well as cost competitiveness, are essential for the widespread adoption of sodium-ion batteries.
Tesla is reportedly working on sodium-ion batteries for release in 2026, which could further spur the adoption of this technology.
Source: ntv.de, mpa/dpa
- Electric vehicles
- Automotive industry
- Batteries
- Climate change
- Energy transition
- Global trade
- China
- Europe
- USA
- Mining
- The surging demand for electric vehicles (EVs) could lead to a global deficit of lithium, a crucial component in lithium-ion batteries, as early as 2030, according to a study from East China Normal University and Lund University.
- The study predicts that Europe, which is almost completely reliant on imports for lithium, will face the most significant bottleneck, with its projected demand of 792,000 tons surpassing the anticipated production of 325,000 tons.
- Both the USA and China will be unable to meet their own lithium demand, highlighting the need for alternative solutions such as sodium-ion batteries, which have lower energy density but are suited for smaller cars with a short range and could potentially reduce lithium usage.
- Chinese EV battery manufacturer CATL has already initiated mass production of sodium-ion cells and plans to supply them to automakers by the end of 2025, while Tesla is reportedly working on sodium-ion batteries for release in 2026. Improvements in energy density, durability, and cost competitiveness are essential for the widespread adoption of sodium-ion batteries.
