Global electric vehicle sales set to break a record high in 2024
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The global electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a significant surge, with key players like the US and the European Union leading the charge. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, EVs will account for 40-55% of new car sales under different policy scenarios, with up to 300 million EVs on the road globally.
Demand for EVs is on the rise, with sales surging 35% in early 2025 compared to 2024. Over 4 million EVs were sold globally in Q1 2025, and annual sales are projected to exceed 20 million by the end of 2025, a 25% increase year-on-year.
The US and EU, with their strong policy support for electrification, are significant contributors to this demand. The intense demand for raw minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite, essential for EV production, is particularly pronounced in these regions.
Lithium demand is particularly high, with global mine supply having increased 22% in 2024 and further growth expected in 2025 and 2026. This growth is mainly due to expansions in China, Australia, Argentina, Chile, and emerging producers in Africa.
However, the raw materials supply is constrained by limited natural reserves, geopolitical risks, and environmental/social concerns associated with mining. This is driving interest in battery recycling and material substitution, such as increasing use of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to reduce cobalt and nickel requirements.
The adoption of LFP batteries, notably in China, may reduce demand for cobalt and nickel. Alternative technologies and AI-driven improvements in mining efficiency aim to optimize mineral use.
China is expected to lead the global electrification process, with one out of three cars on the road being electric by 2030. In Europe, one in four cars is predicted to be electric, despite fading subsidies. China will also see around 10 million new electric vehicles hitting the roads in 2024, representing 45% of all car sales in the country.
The IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol states that the global EV revolution is gearing up for a new phase of growth, and investments in battery manufacturing signal a stronger EV supply chain, expected to meet the expansion plans of automakers.
In the US and the European Union, one in five cars will be electric by 2030, based on current policy settings. The adaptation of EVs from two and three-wheelers to vans, trucks, and buses would avoid the consumption of 12 million barrels per day, IEA notes.
If countries fully met their climate and energy targets on time, two out of three cars sold would be electric by 2035, according to the IEA. Despite a slowdown in sales in the US and Europe, global demand for electric passenger cars will remain strong over the next decade.
Global public charging points increased by 40% in 2023 compared to 2022, but to keep up with government goals, charging networks need to increase sixfold by 2035, IEA says. Chinese automakers delivered over half of all-electric cars in 2023, which could potentially reduce the purchase prices of EVs.
In the US, around one in nine cars sold is expected to be electric. Worldwide electric and plug-in hybrid car sales are expected to reach 17 million in 2024, a 20% increase compared to 2023.
However, the high prices of EVs in Europe could jeopardize environmental goals, as warned by the European Court of Auditors. Strong tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs by the US and the anti-subsidy inquiry launched by the EU against China indicate that affordable Chinese EVs are not welcome in the global rivalry.
The battery recycling industry is growing fast, with recycling capacity reaching 300 GWh in 2023. If all announced battery recycling projects are fulfilled, this figure may exceed 1,500 GWh by 2030, 70% of which is based in China.
Despite the challenges, the IEA predicts that investments in the supply chain, policy support, and decreasing prices of electric cars and batteries will fuel growth in the next decade. However, this is now questioned due to cuts in investments, increased demand for raw minerals, and high prices of EVs and batteries, especially in the US and EU.
Significant EV sales growth was observed in 2023, especially in Vietnam and Thailand, where EVs represented 15% and 10% of all car sales, respectively. Ford postponed a $12 billion investment in EVs in October 2023, stating that electric cars are still too expensive for most consumers.
In conclusion, the global demand for raw minerals critical to EV production is expected to continue strong growth through at least 2030 in line with EV adoption targets, despite some short-term price volatility and oversupply. The focus on recycling and alternative battery chemistries may moderate some material pressures, but overall, long-term demand for critical EV minerals remains robust and is a key strategic challenge for these regions.
- The surge in the global electric vehicle (EV) market has attracted significant investments in data-and-cloud-computing technologies to analyze and optimize raw material supply and demand for efficient EV production and reducing environmental impacts.
- As the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to increase, particularly in regions like China and the US, the finance sector is investigating opportunities in real-estate development focusing on building infrastructure for the EV industry, such as charging stations and battery manufacturing facilities.
