Gold's weekly prediction: Potential dive to $3000 following U.S.-China tariff agreement?
Fresh, Original Version:
Hey there! Let's dive into the gold market from May 12th to May 16th, 2025. Gold has been rockin' and rollin' lately, and we're here to help you ride the waves!
Weekly Gold ForecastLast week, we mentioned the possibility of gold hitting weekly levels. Well, it looks like that's happening now! But don't relax just yet. We anticipate a major move to the upside after this brief dip.
Crucial Pivot PointsNow, let's talk about the key areas where you should keep your eyes peeled for this upcoming week:
- Gold's Point of No Return ($3,167–$3,194): Ever seen the movie "Inception"? Gold's current level is like a recurring dream that happens to be a significant support zone in the real world. This spot could decide whether gold keeps falling or bounces back.
- The Fabledundle ($3,172–$3,080): This is like finding the 'X' on Treasure Island. With daily fibonacci levels, breaker blocks, and fear & greed (FVG), all clustering here, it's a prime spot for potential buys.
Major U.S. Economic Events – Gold's Dance Partners
Gold's social calendar is jam-packed with important events. Here are a few that might give a sneak peek about its dance moves this week:
- Tuesday, May 13th: The Core CPI – Inflation’s Little Helper: Take food and energy out of the equation, and you get the Core CPI. This lovely lady helps us gauge underlying inflation. If her figure turns out to be higher than expected, gold might feel some cold feet and head south, aiming for $3,258–$3,281. On the other hand, a soft number could give gold a confidence boost and encourage a recovery at $3,172–$3,080.
- Thursday, May 15th: Core PPI & Unemployment Claims – Gold's Power Duo: These two forces cover inflation concerns and the labor market. A sharp increase in PPI could cause a bit of friction, limiting gold's descent. Meanwhile, unexpectedly high unemployment claims might fan the flames of demand for safe haven assets, potentially reversing gold's temporary bearish spell.
- Friday, May 16th: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment – Market Mood Check: This one's like a therapeutic counseling session that helps us gauge household economic confidence. Strong positivity could encourage a risk-on approach, causing further gold downturns. However, pessimistic emotions might strengthen recession concerns, helping gold bounce back from deeper support zones.
The Swiss Franc, Gold, and Bitcoin – Three Amigos of SafetyEver since the Wild West of cryptocurrency, bitcoin has been beating the drums as a safe haven. But don't underestimate gold and the Swiss franc—these old-timers are still dependable partners when trouble strikes.
Forecast for May 12th to May 16thIf you want a taste of short-term gains, sell gold in the lower timeframes, and keep it to the side for the bigger, juicier long-term plays.
Support Levels- $3,167–$3,194: Gold's FVG point- $3,172–$3,080: The Fabledundle
Resistance Levels- $3,304–$3,325: 0.5 fib level & the value area low- $3,258–$3,281: Bearish order block & breaker block
Cheers, and may you reap sweet returns from the gold market!
[1] Raphael, J. (2021). This is where gold goes when the Fed is hawkish. Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/investing/indications/3684524-this-is-where-gold-goes-when-the-fed-is-hawkish[2] Attar, A. (2021). Gold breaks key support, nearing S$1650/ oz. Enterprise Singapore. https://www.enterprisesg.gov.sg/blog/2021/04/gold-breaks-key-support-nearing-s1650-oz[3] Carvalho, G. (2021). Gold price analysis and forecast. The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/03/gold-price-analysis-and-forecast/[4] Deutsche Bank. (n.d.) Gold investment outlook 2022. Deutsche Bank. https://www.db.com/content/dam/client-media/dbpub/ir-fi/reporting/research/analyst-research/publications/equity-research-reports/2022-yearly-analyst-selection/gold-research/gold-investment-outlook-2022/deutsche-bank-gold-investment-outlook-2022-en.pdf[5] Smartkarma. (2021). Gold price prediction: Outlook 5-26. Smartkarma. https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/research/gold-price-prediction-outlook-5-26?mi_growth_pk=46510569&utm_source=search&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=brand
- Investing in gold for the upcoming week could benefit from monitoring the crypto market, particularly Tron and XRP, as their performance might lead indicative trends in the broader financial market.
- For those considering diversifying their portfolio, Bitcoin, like gold, serves as a reliable haven during turbulent times in the world of sports or other sectors, offering an alternative to traditional safe havies.
- Decentralized finance (DeFi) projects such as DEX platforms could possibly influence gold trading through the increased demand for digital assets, potentially impacting the safe-haven appeal of gold.
- The performance of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) could provide added insights to predict gold's movements, since their success may be indicative of growing investor sentiment and overall market optimism.
- With an eye on the integration of technology into finance, innovations in payment systems and blockchain solutions for sports organizations might create new bridges between digital and traditional markets, ultimately impacting precious metals like gold.
