Nation on brink of measles epidemic resurgence in United States

Nation on brink of measles epidemic resurgence in United States

AMERICA AT THE BRINK OF MEASLES EPIDEMIC

Washington - In a stark warning, researchers highlight that the United States is on the brink of a measles comeback, a quarter-century after the disease was last officially eradicated in the country.

At present US childhood vaccination rates, measles could once again spread rampantly, with an estimated 851,300 cases over the next 25 years, according to models used by the researchers. This troubling outlook is not set in stone, for if rates of vaccination with the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) shot were to drop by just 10 percent, the result could be a staggering estimated 11.1 million cases of measles over 25 years.

Measles, fortunately, has not been endemic (continuously present) in the US since 2000. However, with vaccination rates falling for MMR shots as well as other childhood vaccines, outbreaks of preventable infectious diseases are increasing. By April 17 in 2025, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) reported a shocking 800 measles cases across the nation, including a devastating Texas outbreak with 624 cases and two deaths.

The ongoing outbreaks have primarily affected close-knit communities with low vaccination rates. In fact, a whopping 96% of all cases occurred among people who were either unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status.

Policies that may further reduce childhood vaccination rates are now under debate. Dramatic increases in vaccination hesitancy, driven by misconceptions about the autism link and other health risks, have fueled the decline in vaccination among US children. Vaccine skepticism, exemplified by the likes of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who now heads the US Department of Health and Human Services, has intensified during the Covid-19 pandemic.

To simulate a population that mirrors the US population at national and state levels, researchers used historical data on measles infections and incorporated it into their study. They discovered that, should routine childhood vaccinations decline by 50 percent, the country would face the terrifying consequences of 51.2 million measles cases, 9.9 million rubella cases, and 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases over the next 25 years. In this scenario, they predict 51,200 patients with lasting neurologic side effects, 10,700 birth defects from congenital rubella infections, 5,400 cases of paralysis from polio, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.

Prudent increases in vaccination rates of around 5 percent, the researchers' models suggest, could prevent measles from becoming endemic once more. The danger remains, though, as vaccine-preventable diseases other than measles are still unlikely to become endemic, but if rates drop by a staggering 35 percent, rubella may well become endemic. Likewise, polio, long believed eradicated in the US, has a 50-50 chance of making a comeback if vaccination rates drop by 40 percent.

In essence, the trend evident in the study is crystal clear: As vaccination rates decline, the spread of measles infections increases exponentially.

Sources:- [1] Journal of the American Medical Association (Jama)- [2] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)- [3] Stanford Medical School- [4] UT Southwestern Medical Centre- [5] Reuters

1. The science of immunology warns about the resurgence of measles, last eradicated in the US 25 years ago.
2. Current US childhood vaccination rates suggest an increase in measles cases by 851,300 over the next 25 years.
3. A 10% drop in vaccination rates could lead to an estimated 11.1 million measles cases over 25 years.
4. Measles has not been endemic in the US since 2000, but the decline in vaccination rates is causing outbreaks of preventable diseases.
5. By 2025, the CDC reported 800 measles cases across the nation, with a devastating Texas outbreak affecting 624 cases and two deaths.
6. Low vaccination rates, driven by misconceptions, are causing an increase in vaccine-hesitancy.
7. Robert F. Kennedy Jr, leading the US Department of Health and Human Services, is an example of vaccine skepticism.
8. Researchers used historical data to model a population that mirrors the US population at national and state levels.
9. A 50% decline in routine childhood vaccinations could result in 51.2 million measles cases, 9.9 million rubella cases, and 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases over 25 years.
10. If vaccination rates decline, the study suggests an increase in neurologic side effects, birth defects, hospitalizations, and deaths.
11. Prudent increases in vaccination rates, around 5%, could prevent measles from becoming endemic again.
12. Similarly, if rubella vaccination rates drop by 35%, it may become endemic.
13. Polio, believed eradicated in the US, has a 50-50 chance of making a comeback if vaccination rates drop by 40%.
14. The study confirms that a decline in vaccination rates leads to an exponential increase in measles infections.
15. The Journal of the American Medical Association, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Stanford Medical School, UT Southwestern Medical Centre, and Reuters were sources for this information.
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