Possible Breakout of XRP beyond $4 potentially due to ETF Launch, Dependent on Certain Conditions...
In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, the first US Spot Ripple (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is scheduled to launch on September 18, marking a pivotal expansion of regulated crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, issued by REX Shares in partnership with Osprey Funds, will use an Investment Company Act of 1940 framework with a Cayman subsidiary capped at 25% of assets.
The XRP ETF debut has sparked optimism among investors, boosting bullish sentiment. However, the price of XRP has faced resistance near $3.20 to $3.33, still below its all-time high of $3.66 reached in July 2025. The gains have been capped due to market factors and analysts downplaying an immediate price surge.
At press time, XRP traded near $3.01 while testing resistance at $3.12. A clean breakout above this level could set up momentum toward $3.59, the next significant supply zone for XRP. Such a breakout could potentially be fueled by the launch of the XRP ETF, which could attract new buyers and strengthen the dominance of long traders if momentum confirms bullish conviction.
However, failure to hold the critical support zone at $2.60 could weaken bullish conviction and test trader appetite for risk, especially if ETF enthusiasm cools. If XRP fails to hold this support, it could expose leveraged longs and undermine bullish momentum. A drop into the $2.60 level could potentially spark a correction back toward the lower boundary of the pattern.
The long/short ratio indicates a significant imbalance in the market, potentially raising risks if the market shifts suddenly. At press time, 78.07% of Binance accounts hold long positions against 21.93% short, producing a Long/Short Ratio of 3.56. Elevated volatility remains a risk due to overexposure to long positions, leaving late entries vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Sentiment stands as both a tailwind and a risk for XRP's price movement. A breakout above $3.12 would also confirm a reversal from the descending channel seen over the past months, signaling renewed strength for XRP. If $3.59 falls, XRP can accelerate further, with $4.00 becoming the psychological target for bulls.
CoinGlass data is the source for the long positioning information. The launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF marks a significant step forward for the cryptocurrency market, offering investors a new avenue for investing in XRP and potentially driving its price higher.
