Predictive Market Analysis: Derivatives Traders Discuss Bitcoin's Imminent $100,000 Surge and Future Prospects
As the digital currency, Bitcoin, inches closer to the significant psychological threshold of $100,000, derivative traders are keeping a keen eye out for signals that may signal the final leg up. They're already preparing for what might come next.
Derivative pros Gordon Grant and Joshua Lim spoke with BeInCrypto, revealing that Bitcoin's move past $100,000 now signals a long-term holding strategy, unlike the speculative trading that happened post-Trump's election victory.
Bitcoin Nearing $100K: A Steady Ascent?
Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers just below $98,000. Traders eagerly await it to surpass the $100,000 threshold, making it the second time this milestone will be broken in crypto history.
According to Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trader Gordon Grant, the current journey towards six figures lacks the passionate energy of previous rallies, such as the one after Trump won the US general election last November. However, that could be a good thing.
Grant stated that, "This current bounce back feels much more of a low-key, lethargic reclamation of those highs...The positioning rinsedown through all key moving averages... was a proper washout." He added that this washout, a sharp move lower that flushed out weak hands, cleared the decks for a healthier rebound. A "high-velocity bounce" followed, as Grant put it.
"[It] has since responsibly slowed down at the $95,000 pivot-a level at which Bitcoin has been centered, +/- 15%, for over five months now," he added. In Grant's view, this sets the stage for Bitcoin to achieve a more substantial and lasting climb through the $100,000 mark, potentially leading its price towards the $110,000 peak it touched around the time of the US inauguration earlier this year.
However, he also pointed out several key components that need to align in the derivatives market for Bitcoin to launch higher.
Controlled Volatility: A Crucial Ingredient for Bitcoin's Next Surge
For Bitcoin to reach new heights, volatility needs to remain under control.
Volatility measures the extent and speed of Bitcoin's price changes. A bullish scenario favors stable or gradually rising prices over dramatic swings.
According to Grant, traders who sell options on Bitcoin volatility now demonstrate a calmer attitude than during January's price surge.
"Current complacency among vol sellers in fading the technical threshold at $100K is markedly different," he said.
Grant further noted that, back in December, volatility spiked on expectations of a rapid moonshot toward $130,000-$150,000. Now, however, implied volatility has actually fallen by around 10 points during the final 10% of Bitcoin's climb-an unusual dynamic that has hurt traders holding out-of-the-money options who were betting on big price swings.
This time, the substantial loss of market optimism also contributes to the situation.
The Rise of Institutional Buyers
Market sentiment has undergone a significant shift since January. The excitement preceding Bitcoin's price hitting $100,000 has been replaced by uncertainty. According to Grant, souring macro conditions such as tariff-driven equity selloffs and growing caution among traders have contributed to this mood shift across markets.
"Whereas BTC on first launch to/through $100K was accompanied by euphoria about presidential policies... the re-approach has been marred by malaise," Grant explained.
In essence, the drive to buy may now be more about fear than greed.
Joshua Lim, Global Co-Head of Markets at FalconX, concurred with this analysis, highlighting a noticeable shift in the primary source of Bitcoin demand.
"The dominant narrative is more around Microstrategy-type equities accumulating Bitcoin, that's more consistent buyers rather than the retail swing traders," Lim told BeInCrypto.
In other words, the speculative retail buying that fueled earlier enthusiasm around Bitcoin's price reaching $100,000 might have been replaced by more consistent and significant buying coming from large companies adopting a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy, similar to the one adopted by Michael Saylor's Strategy.
The recent formation of 21 Capital, backed by mega companies like Tether and Softbank, further confirms this shift in motivation.
Consistent institutional buying can support an increase in Bitcoin's price over time.
Why Are Institutions Growing More Bullish on Bitcoin?
With growing momentum from sovereign players and corporate treasuries, institutional buying might be essential in sustaining Bitcoin's next upward trajectory.
Grant emphasized that developing countries seeking to distance themselves from a weakening dollar and toward a more independent asset like Bitcoin could play a significant role. If this were to happen, it would signify a potentially tectonic shift to global monetary policy.
"The Global South, tiring of wonky and inconstant dollar policies, may be truly thinking about dumping dollars for BTC," Grant explained, clarifying, "That's a reserve manager decision, not a spec/leverage position."
Increased institutional adoption strengthens the notion that Bitcoin now serves as a way to reduce risk against issues pertinent to financial systems, like inflation or currency devaluation.
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Join Plus500 Now!Meanwhile, more corporations are viewing Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset.
"The proliferation of SMLR, 21Cap, and many others, including NVDA deciding they need to derisk their balance sheets by rerisking on BTC-even as it approaches the top decile of all-time prices," Grant pointed to as evidence.
In short, even large institutions are choosing to take on the risk of Bitcoin's price fluctuations as a potential offset to other, potentially larger financial risks.
Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin's approach to $100,000, the true anticipation centers on its continuing development as an increasingly integral component of the financial system.
- As Bitcoin inches closer to the $100,000 mark, derivative traders are closely watching for signals that could indicate a final push to this significant psychological threshold.
- Bitcoin's move past $100,000, according to Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trader Gordon Grant, indicates a long-term holding strategy, unlike the speculative trading that occurred post-Trump's election victory.
- Institutional buyers, such as large companies adopting a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy, are becoming a significant source of demand, as seen in the formation of 21 Capital.
- Volatility must remain under control for Bitcoin to reach new heights, with traders who sell options on Bitcoin volatility demonstrating a calmer attitude compared to January's price surge.
- If developing countries were to start distancing themselves from a weakening dollar and move towards Bitcoin, it could represent a potentially tectonic shift in global monetary policy.
- More corporations are viewing Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset, with Michael Saylor's Strategy and NVDA being examples of companies derisking their balance sheets by rerisking on Bitcoin.
- The anticipation for Bitcoin's continued development lies in its growing role as an increasingly integral component of the financial system.
