Q1 2025 Tesla sales projected to reach a 2022-esque low
Tesla, the world's leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is expected to announce a decline in its Q1 2025 deliveries, according to analyst predictions. The consensus forecast for January was around 450,000 sales, but it has since fallen, with an average expectation of around 373,000 vehicles.
The anticipated delivery number for Q1 2025 is about 30,000 more than in Q3 2022 but less than in any other quarter since then. This decline would represent a 3.5% decrease compared to Q1 2024.
In Europe, Tesla sales declined significantly in March, with a 37% drop in France, a 64% decrease in Sweden, and a mere 1% drop in Norway. This decline has often been linked to increasing unpopularity of Elon Musk, due to his association with controversial policies of former US President Donald Trump.
However, Tesla managed to sell approximately 1% more electric vehicles in Q1 2025 in China compared to Q1 2024, despite a noticeable drop in sales in January and February.
Last week, Deutsche Bank lowered its Q1 2025 forecast to between 340,000 and 350,000 Tesla deliveries. If Tesla reports a worldwide decline in the first quarter despite the small increase in China, voices critical of Elon Musk could become louder.
It is worth noting that the new Tesla Model Y has not been mentioned in the earlier bullet points, and its impact on the Q1 2025 sales is yet to be seen. The switch to the new Model Y, which started earlier in Asia, is likely to have had significant effects, especially in the West.
On Wednesday (2.4.), Tesla is expected to release Q1 2025 electric vehicle delivery and production data. The market still expects slight growth for the whole of 2025, while Tesla's Q1 2025 forecast suggests a potential decline for the second consecutive year.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-delivered-384122-electric-vehicles-q2-2025-missing-some-expectations-2025-07-25/ [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/tesla-q2-2022-earnings-q2-2025-deliveries.html [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-says-2025-deliveries-will-rise-after-decline-2022-04-27/ [4] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/tesla-q1-2025-deliveries-are-expected-to-fall-3-5percent-compared-to-q1-2024.html
Despite the anticipated decline in Tesla's Q1 2025 deliveries, the finance industry is closely watching the impact of the new Model Y, particularly in the technology sector, as its switch, primarily in Asia, could significantly influence the West's market.
