Tesla's Q4 Disappointment, Affordable Electric Vehicle Pre-July Launch, Emphasis on Optimus, conservative party shift concerns
Tesla's Q4 Report: New EV and Humanoid Robot on the Horizon
Tesla, the leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has announced plans for a new compact EV and a significant push towards the production of its humanoid robot, Optimus.
According to the Q4 report, Tesla aims to launch a new electric vehicle in the first half of the year. The company's Chief Financial Officer, Vaibhav Taneja, also hinted at a more affordable EV option. In addition, the range of Tesla's vehicles is expected to grow, as stated by Taneja.
In the long run, Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is anticipated to make up the overwhelming majority of Tesla's value. The company plans to begin limited production of Optimus in 2025, with the goal of deploying over 1,000 units operationally in its own factories by 2026. Elon Musk aims to scale up production rapidly, targeting up to 1 million robots produced annually by 2030.
Key production details include an initial batch of 1,000 robots, which will include the production version "Optimus V3." Tesla is already producing components like power electronics, motors, batteries, chassis, and the Full Self-Driving (FSD) computer fully in-house. Musk has stated the goal to reduce costs so robots can perform human-like tasks more cheaply, which would drive demand from companies using these robots for factory tasks, vehicle maintenance, cleaning, and automatic charging. Optimus pricing could drop to a range between $20,000 and $30,000 as production scales.
However, Tesla faces technological challenges such as battery life limitations, hardware-software integration issues, and mechanical dexterity of the robot’s hands, which could affect production speed and capabilities. Some recent supply chain reports suggest Tesla may be facing setbacks or halts in Optimus production related to unresolved technical bottlenecks, which may delay the timeline or require design adjustments to focus on more achievable tasks.
Regarding market value, Musk envisions Optimus as potentially Tesla's biggest product ever due to its wide applications in labor-saving automation across industries, particularly in Tesla’s own manufacturing and possibly expanding to commercial customers as capabilities improve.
In other news, Tesla generated around $25.7 billion in revenue and earned $0.73 per share in Q4 2024, both falling short of analyst expectations. The auto business margin, excluding CO2 credit sales, fell to 13.6 percent, the lowest in five years. Tesla did not reiterate its projection of 20-30 percent more electric vehicle sales in 2025 as previously stated.
The company also announced plans to start production of new electric vehicles, including more affordable ones, in the first half of 2025. The updated Model Y will be produced in all four global factories starting in February, causing several weeks of production downtime in Q1. Tesla will launch a paid, driverless robotaxi service in the US city of Austin in June.
In addition, a new electric vehicle subsidy program will start in Poland in February, offering up to around €9,500 in support. The AfD party in Brandenburg has given up its resistance to the Tesla factory in Grünheide near Berlin. However, Musk's political support for the AfD party in Germany has been met with criticism and backlash from several German companies and a Polish minister calling for a Tesla boycott.
Despite these challenges, Tesla remains committed to its ambitious plans for Optimus and its EV lineup. The company aims to ramp up Optimus production faster than any other product in the past, with a production line for 1,000 units per month already in the works, and plans for lines capable of producing 10,000 and 100,000 units. The humanoid robot Optimus, initially planned to be produced by Tesla in 2022, is now expected to be offered to external customers for the first time as early as the second half of 2026.
- The Q4 report suggests that Tesla's Chief Financial Officer, Vaibhav Taneja, hinted at a more affordable electric vehicle option in addition to the new EV planned for launch in the first half of the year.
- Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is anticipated to make up the overwhelming majority of Tesla's value in the long run, with plans to begin limited production in 2025, and the aim to reduce costs so robots can perform human-like tasks more affordably, with a potential price range between $20,000 and $30,000 as production scales.
