U.S.-China trade conflict analyzed by authority, Orville Schell, on its impact and potential solutions.
LET'S TAKE A SQUINT AT ANOTHER HOT TOPIC - THE Ongoing TRUMP TARIFFS SAGA. Those damning tariffs on imports from almost every nation are slapped with a 10% tax. However, a whopping 145% goes to the ever-vexing China. Unsurprisingly, China has fired back with similar triple-digit tariffs. Yet, Trump's stubbornness shows no signs of waning, as made clear in a recent Truth Social post, targeting entities purchasing oil from Iran, a major oil supplier for China.
Now, the White House claims that negotiations between the two colossal nations revolve around their dictators - Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Yet, neither autocrat seems eager to take the first step. Over on NPR, A Martínez spoke to a familiar name in China watch circles, Orville Schell. Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society, shed some enlightening insight on whether this is, indeed, China's time to seize the crown.
AS THE GEOPOLITICAL SCENE SHIFTS, IS THIS CHINA'S MOMENT TO SHOWN STEAL?
"Well, I reckon China has a golden opportunity to fill the void left by Trump, effectively turning the page on the old world order. However, I'm not so optimistic about Xi Jinping and China's abilities to capitalize on it. Both leaders are known for their thin skins, often equating concessions with weakness. So we find ourselves in a vicious cycle, where neither is willing to take the fateful move to break the cycle," Schell mused.
HOW READY IS CHINA FOR THIS BATTLE ROYALE?
"China's economy is heavily export-dependent, meaning it has to manufacture far more than it needs to keep that growth rate humming. If U.S. tariffs persist, China may have no choice but to export elsewhere, potentially at lower prices," Schell noted.
HOW DAMAGING COULD THIS BE LONG-TERM FOR CHINA?
"A prolonged trade war could prove highly damaging to China, not just economically but also for the U.S. Bearing in mind the chokeholds each country has on the other, one critical example being microchips, things could get very messy if China decides to retaliate," Schell warned.
RARING UP FOR A RUCKUS
Another point of contention is rare earth elements, essential components in modern manufacturing, China is the dominant producer of these precious metals, with almost all the mined raw materials eventually going to China for processing, as Schell underlined.
SO, WHAT'S UP WITH UKRAINE AND THE US HOPPING ON THE RARE EARTH BANDWAGON?
"Well, In terms of Ukraine and the U.S sourcing rare earth minerals, we have a long way to go. We lack the capacity to extract the minerals we need from the material, so we're still heavily reliant on China for processing. In essence, China holds a tight grip on a critical segment of rare earth element production," Schell cautioned.
NOT JUST THE BIG BOYS
While it appears that the U.S. and China are engaged in a rugged contest, the question remains, what commotion will this cause for the rest of the world as these titans dance?
"If 145% tariffs remain in place for China, it might seek alternative markets, possibly at lower prices. Let's take Europe, for example. They could obliterate the entire European auto industry, correspondingly crippling the German economy," Schell predicted.
SSSSSSTILL GOT THE CHOKEHOLD ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
With global supply chains ever so intertwined, prolonged trade tensions between the U.S. and China may result in increased costs and potential supply chain disruptions across industries worldwide.
IN A NUTSHELL, the long-term implications of the U.S.-China trade war for China include potential economic hardships, potential obstacles in climate objectives, and widespread disruptions to the global supply chain.
- The ongoing Trump tariffs saga has imposed a 10% tax on imports from many nations, with China facing a hefty 145%.
- China, in response, has imposed similar triple-digit tariffs, and President Trump shows no signs of backing down.
- Negotiations between the two superpowers allegedly revolve around their leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, but neither seems keen to make the first move.
- Orville Schell, a China expert, stated that China has an opportunity to shift the global order left by Trump, but he doubts Jinping's ability to capitalize on it.
- Schell also highlighted that China's heavy dependence on exports could potentially encourage China to seek alternative markets if tariffs persist, with potential long-term consequences for the European auto industry and German economy.
- With interconnected global supply chains, prolonged trade tensions between the U.S. and China may lead to increased costs and potential disruptions across various industries worldwide.
