XRP Spikes Post Closure of SEC Case and ETF Anticipation
In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, several major asset managers have filed applications for XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) scheduled to make final decisions by mid-to-late October 2025.
The anticipated decisions come after the SEC completed extended reviews of the filings, as it evaluates market impacts and regulatory factors. This delay follows a more favorable regulatory environment, with the appointment of crypto-friendly SEC Chair Paul Atkins in April 2025, the dismissal of the Ripple lawsuit, and the launch of XRP futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in May 2025. These developments may qualify these ETFs for expedited review pathways.
Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise are among the firms with spot XRP ETF applications under review, with final SEC decisions expected in October 2025. Grayscale's decision deadline is set for October 18, 21Shares for October 19, and Bitwise for October 20. CoinShares, along with other issuers, also has a decision deadline extended to late October 2025.
It is worth noting that the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF was approved and launched in July 2025, but it provides leveraged exposure to XRP futures rather than direct XRP holdings.
Market consensus views approval odds as high, up to 95%, given these recent developments. However, official announcements are still pending.
The current status of XRP stands at $3.2259 as of August 9, recording a 15.3 percent growth on a weekly basis and topping the industry-wide advance of 7.9 percent in the world crypto market. Following the dismissal news of the Ripple lawsuit, XRP leaped 11.4 percent in 24 hours.
Macroeconomic headwinds, such as Fed policy and recession fears, remain potential risks for XRP prices. On the other hand, a move to an ETF acceptance may spur on institutional application for XRP, potentially improving sentiments for the cryptocurrency.
In addition, Ripple is pursuing a U.S. bank permit, and legislative actions may enhance the situation with XRP cross-border payments. The case, which started in 2020, charged Ripple with unregistered sale of securities, but was dismissed as of August 7, 2025.
ODDS in Polymarket suggest a 75 percent likelihood of an XRP ETF filing, with reports of no filing taking place but some analysts still discussing the possibility. A potential filing is rumored to occur in October 2025, and a Fed cut in September could help improve sentiments for XRP.
The 50-day EMA for XRP points to around 2.88, and the price of XRP is above its 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs), at $3. The 200-day MA for XRP is at $3.
In conclusion, the most likely timeframe for SEC decisions on XRP spot ETF approvals is October 2025, with final outcomes by the end of that month. The dismissal of the Ripple lawsuit and the launch of XRP futures on the CME, among other factors, have boosted market optimism for XRP ETF approvals.
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